######################################################################
#MODELO 0

model
{
for (i in 1:N) {
	Ventas[i] ~ dpois(lambda);
	}
lambda ~ dgamma(90.25,9.5);
}

list(
	Ventas = c(13, 8, 9, 6, 8, 7, 7, 7), 
	N=8)

list(lambda=1)

######################################################################
#MODELO 1

model
{
for (i in 1:N) {
	Cantidad[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i],tau);
	mu[i] <- alpha+beta*Precio[i];
	}
alpha ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
beta ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
tau ~ dgamma(0.0001,0.0001);
CantP1 <- alpha+beta*75;
}

list(
	Cantidad = c(55, 70, 90, 100, 90, 105, 80, 110, 125, 115, 130, 130), 
	Precio = c(100, 90, 80, 70, 70, 70, 70, 65, 60, 60, 55, 50),
	N=12)

list(alpha=0,beta=0,tau=1)


#####################################################################
#MODELO 2

model
{
for (i in 1:N) {
	Cantidad[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i],tau);
	mu[i] <- alpha+beta[1]*Precio[i]+beta[2]*Publicidad[i];
	}
alpha ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
beta[1] ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
beta[2] ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
tau ~ dgamma(0.0001,0.0001);
CantP2 <- alpha+beta[1]*75+beta[2]*7.30;
}

list(
	Cantidad = c(55, 70, 90, 100, 90, 105, 80, 110, 125, 115, 130, 130), 
	Precio = c(100, 90, 80, 70, 70, 70, 70, 65, 60, 60, 55, 50),
	Publicidad = c(5.50, 6.30, 7.20, 7.00, 6.30, 7.35, 5.60, 7.15, 7.50, 6.90, 7.15, 6.50),
	N=12)

list(alpha=0,beta=c(0,0),tau=1)


#####################################################################
#MODELO 3

model
{
for (i in 2:N) {
	Llegadas[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i],tau);
	mu[i] <- alpha+beta[1]*Tiempo[i]+beta[2]*sin(theta[1]*Tiempo[i])+beta[3]*cos(theta[2]*Tiempo[i])+beta[4]*Llegadas[i-1];
	}
alpha ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
for (i in 1:4) {
	beta[i] ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
	}
theta[1] ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
theta[2] ~ dnorm(0.0,0.0001);
tau ~ dgamma(0.0001,0.0001);
for (i in 2:N) {
	Plleg[i] <- alpha+beta[1]*Tiempo[i]+beta[2]*sin(theta[1]*Tiempo[i])+beta[3]*cos(theta[2]*Tiempo[i])+beta[4]*Llegadas[i-1];
	}
for (i in (N+1):(N+20)) {
	Plleg[i] <- alpha+beta[1]*Tiempo[i]+beta[2]*sin(theta[1]*Tiempo[i])+beta[3]*cos(theta[2]*Tiempo[i])+beta[4]*Plleg[i-1];
	}
}

list(Llegadas = c(
2952,4359,3504,2131,2277,1656,1790,2770,4496,3097,1777,1555,1041,1649,2964,4655,3278,2264,1834,
1111,1423,2646,3542,2905,1841,1714,1084,1477,2309,4253,2938,1985,1691,893,1805,2908,3497,2741,1942,
1679,1014,1383,3334,3430,2796,2088,1401,1738,2050,2996,4571,3039,2142,1979,1270,1919,3030,2986,2586,
1954,1593,839,2255,2437,3165,2944,2119,1506,985,1449,1757,2588,2149,2155,1545,1305,1580,2008,3036,
2813,2240,1352,1234,1471,2082,2852,2350,1684,1898,995,1272,1635,3072,2447,1842,1895,1303,1410,
1969,2739,2556,2233,2013,1490,1477,1806,3050,2878,1787,2083,1905,3086,2440,3584,3338,2563,
2308,1975,2232,2577,3570,3402,2344,2544,1741,1997,2326,3128,3392,2397,2039,1643,2195,2011,3471,
3393,2159,2141,2007,2123,2371,3749,4239,2686,2484,1985,2177,2688,4359,3406,2865,2215,1898,
2249,3032,4251,3597,2648,2370,1702,2465,2044,3469,3114,2788,2445,2122,1550,2116,4138,3140,2366,
2019,1669,1904,2298,2451,2677,2112,2631,1261,1464,1317,2737,2458,2113,1328,1784,1273,1131,2240,
2232,1731,1376,1011,1157,1774,4075,3343,2078,1687,1130,1067,1504,2265,2492,2085,1721,1523,869,1367,
2222,1879,1699,2009,1327,1109,1706,2577,2174,1726,1255,1226,1359,1511,3093,1978,2349,1396,1391,1042,
1669,2511,2405,2227,1903,1127,1083,1591,2615,2306,2110,1821,1069,1023),
Tiempo = c(
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,
44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,
84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,
117,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141,142,143,144,145,
146,147,148,149,150,151,152,153,154,155,156,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164,165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,173,174,
175,176,177,178,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,191,192,193,194,195,196,197,198,199,200,201,202,203,
204,205,206,207,208,209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,
233,234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,244,245,246,247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260,
261,262,263,264,265),
N = 245)

list(alpha=0,beta=c(0,0,0,0),theta=c(0,0),tau=1)